2023 Predictions — Predictions are dumb

If there is anything I have learned from the first month of this year, it is that predictions for it are dumb. No one knows what is happening. So that is my prediction for 2023, that to do it for this year would be stupid.

The whole reason this year is going to be so unpredictable is that humans, in general, are unpredictable. One human determines whether the market will go up or down. That man is Jerome Powell.

His decision alone determines how this year looks and depends on whatever arbitrary indicators he decides he wants to fight. Today it is inflation, but who says tomorrow it won't be something that isn't even on our radar? It is easy to argue that he is the most powerful man in the world right now. An unelected bureaucrat gets to decide the quality of our lives based on data and metrics that only he decides are important. It makes my blood boil.

My mistake was following the consensus. I was certain that we were going full steam into a recession. Why was I certain, though? I was sure because the people I was following were sure, not that I had any particular insight into anything myself. This past week the market completely whipsawed. Why did it whip? Our man Jerome Powell's language turned dovish. Literally, the vernacular he used changed, and the whole market shifted.

This surprise is what got me to this prediction. I realized that no one would be able to predict how this year would go because none of us are in Jerome Powell's head. It's entirely in his hands, and he decides what our price of money should be.

The only thing I can know for sure is "Tick Tock, Next Block." Bitcoin will keep on, and I will stay humble and stack it. It at least has a monetary policy that makes sense and is transparent. There will be a lot of building this year, and at the end of 2023, I am most excited to see how much it will progress.

My mission is to help get our future prosperity out of one person's mind and into our own hands.